Why Most Commercial Real Estate Deals Failed After 2021–2022 скачать в хорошем качестве

Why Most Commercial Real Estate Deals Failed After 2021–2022

Most investors chase returns. Institutional investors obsess over protecting the downside — and that single difference explains why so many commercial real estate and multifamily deals are breaking right now. In Episode 438 of the Rich Somers Report, Rich sits down with John Azar and Francisco Herrera (Peak 15 Capital) to break down what really happened during the 2021–2022 euphoria, why undisciplined underwriting + risky debt (bridge debt, high leverage) created today’s wave of distress, and why many “broken deals” aren’t asset problems at all — they’re capital structure problems. We also cover what disciplined operators are doing in 2025–2026, how institutional investors think about risk, why “hope is not a strategy,” and why relationships outperform deal-chasing when the market stops being forgiving. If you’re an LP, sponsor, or serious investor trying to navigate cap rates, interest rates, refinancing risk, and underwriting in this cycle — this episode is a clear, no-hype framework for thinking like an institution. Topics covered in this episode: Why multifamily deals are going back to the bank Capital structure vs asset quality (what actually breaks deals) 2021–2022 underwriting mistakes and debt structures that failed “Extend and pretend” and how distress is trading quietly off-market What Peak 15 Capital does (GP fund model + liquidity provider role) Where opportunity is in 2026: distress, small-bay industrial, relationships How to think about supply, rent growth, and conservative exit caps Best advice for new operators: property management + underwriting reps -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ALL MY LINKS BELOW CONNECT WITH ME HERE: https://link.me/investwithfrancisco INTERESTED IN OUR PEAK 15 CAPITAL FUND I: Visit www.https://www.peak15cap.com/landing/cap... to learn more. INTERESTED IN A 1-HOUR STRATEGIC CALL WITH FRANCISCO? Visit https://calendly.com/herreraf/strateg... to book a call. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Timestamps 0:00 – The #1 question institutions ask: “What’s my downside?” 01:37 – Why multifamily deals are failing 02:32 – 2021–2022 euphoria: how the market got distorted 03:52 – Why risky debt exploded 04:11 – “Rent growth will save us” — why that belief broke deals 04:35 – Phoenix/Scottsdale example: supply + concessions + lease-up pain 05:52 – Conservative underwriting principles that keep you out of trouble 06:27 – Are deals quietly going distressed right now? 07:03 – Private distress is real 07:45 – Banks enabled the cycle too ( 08:16 – “Extend and pretend” and why offloading is happening late 09:36 – Perfect storm: overpriced assets + overleveraged loans 10:27 – Real example: buying lender-owned assets at a discount 11:49 – The key thesis: not an asset issue — a capital structure issue 12:53 – Rates up ~500 bps: the problem was velocity, not just level 14:01 – Rate cuts + 2026 outlook: how much relief is real? 16:28 – Cap rates piled on top of each other in 2021 18:11 – “Dumb money” moments: a 3.7 cap on a C-class deal 20:08 – Case study: operator lost $17M ( 22:10 – Why saying “no” for 18 months became an advantage 23:35 – Distress opportunities: buying at ~50% of prior pricing 24:00 – What Peak 15 Capital does 25:56 – Why Peak 15 added car washes 27:21 – Growth story: development, industrial, and distressed loan portfolios 28:11 – “Smart money vs retail” explained 29:35 – Reverse-engineering the buy: who’s the buyer in 3–5 years? 30:50 – What makes a deal uninvestable today 33:01 – “No [___] policy”: partnering with people you actually trust 35:46 – What matters now: supply, demand, and the real “deal story” 38:29 – Small-bay industrial: why demand is beating supply 41:46 – Biggest play people miss: sectors + the relationship advantage 42:33 – 2026 is about relationships, not chasing deals 45:38 – Debt strategies today: assumable debt vs distressed notes 47:11 – What “true off-market” really means 49:04 – Creative capital stacks: lenders discount + profit participation 51:29 – 2026–2027 forecast: “thawing period” and what changes slowly 55:36 – Best advice: start in property management 57:24 – Another path: brokerage analysis + underwriting reps 58:37 – Where to find Peak 15 + what’s coming next