Why Peter believes the Fed will remain 'on hold' скачать в хорошем качестве

Why Peter believes the Fed will remain 'on hold'

Peter Cardillo of Spartan Capital highlights concerns around the divergent US economic expansion, pointing to growing challenges faced by middle and lower income earners. Cardillo states that elevated interest rates and sticky inflation, especially rising grocery prices, are exerting pressure on consumer confidence and household spending. He notes that while the wealthy continue to spend, most households face tighter budgets, which he sees as potentially negative for broader consumer demand. Cardillo expects the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady, dismissing the likelihood of a rate cut in the near term. He draws attention to the weakening US dollar, referencing the dollar index’s slide to a notable 52-week low, and suggests this could force sustained higher yields. Cardillo views the combination of labour market dynamics, persistent inflation, and dollar depreciation as possible catalysts for the central bank to strike a more hawkish tone. Turning to markets, Cardillo points to robust gains in gold and silver, describing the precious metals rally as the strongest he has seen. He attributes this to macroeconomic fundamentals and a weak dollar environment, and suggests higher gold prices are likely, though he cautions a pullback is inevitable. Cardillo also cites the role of mega cap tech earnings—such as those from the Magnificent Seven—in supporting current equity valuations, but warns of downside risks if the dollar declines further or geopolitical tensions escalate.