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Stratospheric Influences on Surface Weather and Climate

The role of the stratospheric polar vortex in modulating wintertime weather patterns is now widely recognised and a key source of skill for subseasonal and seasonal forecasting. Vortex variability includes ‘sudden stratospheric warmings’, among the most dramatic events in the atmosphere. This talk will review recent advances in understanding the diverse ways the stratosphere can influence wintertime weather and climate in the Northern Hemisphere, focusing on the North Atlantic. The evolution of this winter’s vortex will be discussed, including examining potential links to surface weather patterns.