February 12th 2026 National and Orange County California real estate outlook. скачать в хорошем качестве

February 12th 2026 National and Orange County California real estate outlook.

📉 1. National Sales Trends — Sign of Caution Ahead U.S. existing home sales plunged sharply in January 2026, marking the slowest pace in more than two years and a significant decline from December — despite lower mortgage rates. This reflects ongoing caution among buyers and persistent affordability challenges.  • Sales dropped 8.4% month-to-month, and 4.4% year-over-year.  • Median prices are still rising, and inventory remains relatively tight.  • Buyers remain hesitant even as rates ease — signaling a transition market rather than a boom.  What this means for Orange County: local demand often mirrors national affordability trends — high prices even with rate relief mean fewer qualified buyers unless inventory loosens or rates fall further. ⸻ 📊 2. Southern California & Orange County Forecasts Southern California housing forecasts for 2026 signal a slow but stabilizing market rather than a reset into steep growth or collapse.  Key Local Nuggets: • Orange County home values remain high, with a slight year-over-year value change recently around -0.1%, showing mild price stability/flatness.  • Mortgage activity has picked up as prices level and inventory increases slightly during the spring season.  • Long-term indicators suggest homeownership rates may stay low until 2028, then potentially rebound.  Seller insight: more balanced markets mean pricing strategy and staging become even more critical, since buyers may be able to negotiate. Buyer insight: rising inventory and flat pricing can create more choice — but strong comps and competitive financing remain key. ⸻ 📈 3. Interest Rates — A Central Factor in 2026 Mortgage rates have cooled significantly from prior highs, but they are not collapsing, and could stabilize in a range favorable to activity rather than shock markets. Current U.S. Interest Rates (Feb 12, 2026): • 30-year fixed ~ ~6.16% – 6.22% (APR) on average.  • Adjustable and specialty loans vary, but remain close to these ranges.  Local & Forecast Expectations: • Orange County forecasts suggest rates may average near ~6% in 2026, which historically improves affordability relative to near-7% peaks.  • Local lenders also emphasize that published rates don’t always reflect the rates buyers can secure depending on credit, loan type, and timing.  Buyer takeaway: Even small rate shifts (e.g., 0.25 – 0.50%) materially affect qualifying power and monthly payments in high-priced Orange County markets — making rate timing, strong credit, and rate locks especially important.  Seller takeaway: Stable or slightly declining rates can expand the buyer pool — but buyers may still negotiate on price, repairs, or rate buy-downs to improve affordability. ⸻ 🔍 4. What Buyers Need to Watch ✔ Affordability pressure still exists — even with lower rates, high prices and mortgage qualification hurdles limit buyer participation.  ✔ Inventory levels are improving modestly in Orange County — creating more choices but also requiring competitive offers.  ✔ Strong price stability rather than skyrocketing gains means patient buyers might find better deals where homes have been on market longer.  ✔ Consider rate lock strategies and alternative loan products (shorter terms, ARMs) if qualifying at higher loan amounts is a challenge.  ⸻ 📌 5. What Sellers Should Watch ✔ With a more balanced market, pricing homes accurately based on comps is crucial — overpricing simply delays sales.  ✔ Rising inventory means buyers have more options — compelling staging, concessions, and flexible closing terms can make a difference.  ✔ Rate buy-downs or seller paid points can incentivize buyers who are sensitive to monthly cost. ✔ Keep an eye on rate trends: even a modest further decline could significantly expand the buyer pool in OC. ⸻ 📅 Outlook Summary: 2026 won’t be a crash year — but a rebalancing year where interest rates, pricing, and inventory find a new equilibrium.  Buyers benefit from: • Slightly better affordability relative to higher rate years • More listings and less bidding frenzy • Strategic negotiations on price and terms Sellers benefit from: • Steady demand retaining value • Opportunity to sell without rapid price declines • Opportunity to leverage rate-buy-downs to close deals