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I spent 12 hours reverse-engineering Valve's float distribution system and discovered an equation that calculates the true Factory New probability for any CS2 skin. Every ROI calculator, every investment guide, every float probability chart you've seen is using incomplete math. This video fixes that. The mikewater9 theorem: y = 1.15 · x^(-0.04) · e^(-3.43x) + 0.028 What you'll learn: → Why dead zones exist in CS2's float system (and how they scale) → How float caps distort Factory New probability non-linearly → The exact FN drop rate for ANY skin based on its max float → How to calculate true fair value for trade-up fillers → Why the Tec-9 Whiteout is mathematically the rarest FN skin Valve could design → How to rebuild case ROI with 99% accuracy TIMESTAMPS: 0:00 - The Solitude Problem 1:30 - Discovering Dead Zones 2:30 - The Non-Linear Compression 5:00 - The Math Behind It All 6:25 - We Have Found Our Equation.. 6:50 - Sponsor 7:35 - The Golden Equation Reveal 8:00 - Applications (Fair Value, Case ROI, Rarity Ceiling) 10:00 - What Comes Next GIVEAWAY: Share this video on X, tag @mikewater9cs and 2 others. Winner chosen February 8th. 📊 Resources mentioned: CSFloat Blog Analysis: https://blog.csfloat.com/analysis-of-... CSFloat Database: https://csfloat.com/db Trade-Up Calculator: https://csfloat.com/trade-up 🔗 Follow me: Twitter/X: / mikewater9cs Twitch: / mikewater9 linktr.ee/mikewater9 This video covers CS2 float values, float distribution, Factory New probability, case ROI calculation, skin investment strategy, trade-up math, Valve's drop system, float caps, wear ratings, and the mathematical rarity of CS2 skins. #CS2 #CounterStrike2 #CS2Skins #CS2Trading #CS2Investment #FloatValue #FactoryNew #CS2Economy #SkinInvesting #CS2Math #Valve #CS2Guide #CS2Tips #CSGO #CSGOSkins #TradeUp #CaseROI #CS2Market #SkinTrading #CS2Float Join this channel to get access to perks: / @mikewater9