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In this episode, Nik sits down with TBL on-chain analyst Johan Bergman to break down Bitcoin’s recent breakdown, sell-the-rip behavior, and the on-chain signals flashing bear market conditions. Johan walks through cost basis models, the AVIV Ratio Mean, short-term holder behavior, and why Bitcoin’s November trend break marked a major regime shift. They discuss ETF flows, forced selling, liquidation dynamics, and where real support may emerge next, while separating long-term conviction from short-term market reality. 📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm. 🔓 The Bitcoin Layer is proud to be sponsored by Unchained, the leader in Bitcoin financial services. Unchained empowers you to take full control of your Bitcoin with a collaborative multisig vault, where you hold two of three keys, and benefit from a Bitcoin security partner. Purchase Bitcoin directly into your cold storage vault and eliminate exchange risks with Unchained's Trading Desk. Unchained also offers the best IRA product in the industry, allowing you to easily roll over old 401(k)s or IRAs into Bitcoin while keeping control of your keys. Don’t pay more taxes than you have to. Talk to us today. Visit unchained.com/tbl and use the code TBL10 for a 10% credit towards your first year's account fees. 🔨 Try Stamp Seed, a DIY kit that enables you to hammer your seed words into a durable plate of titanium using professional stamping tools. Take 15% off with code TBL. Get your Stamp Seed today! https://www.stampseed.com/shop/seed-p... ▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube. 📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe 🎧 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform. 📱 Follow TBL on X: / thebitcoinlayer 📩 Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial 🧢 Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch ⛓️ ₿lock Height 934791 ⚡ Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: thebitcoinlayer@zbd.gg Nik Bhatia's Twitter: / timevalueofbtc Researcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschatt Lead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB ❗ The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice. Chapters: 00:00 Welcome & Bitcoin Market Overview 02:32 Bear Market Breakdown & Market Dividers 06:35 On-Chain Metrics & True Market Mean 10:50 Current Price Levels and Technical Analysis 13:53 Recent Price Action & Support Zones 16:13 Analyzing Leverage, Liquidations, and Emotions 20:22 Market Sentiment & Cycle Reflections 24:44 Liquidity Events and Weekend Price Dumps 28:18 Four Year Cycle & Human Behavior 32:08 Community Reactions & Macro Events 36:10 Who’s Selling? Capitulation and Whale Activity 39:44 Treasury Holdings & Corporate Impacts 41:00 Is the Bitcoin Bull Case Dead? 43:34 Advice for Investors & Risk Management 44:25 Wrap Up & TBL Resources