Multifamily Investing in 2025: How to Find Opportunity in Distressed Market скачать в хорошем качестве

Multifamily Investing in 2025: How to Find Opportunity in Distressed Market

Host Kyle Macdonald sits down with CEO Jason Manwaring to unpack three big themes shaping multifamily right now: The top 20 U.S. submarkets for new apartments since 2021 (Phoenix & Dallas dominate), Phoenix August 2025 sales comps—why price-per-unit for 100+ unit deals matched 10–99 unit deals, and A national take: multifamily cap rates stabilizing as rent growth bottoms and supply gets absorbed. They compare Phoenix’s short-term oversupply (and distressed buys at 40–45% discounts) with Flagstaff’s near-zero pipeline and 100% occupancies, then dig into ABI’s monthly comp set (from Kierland’s $419k/unit to distressed buys near $137k/unit). The macro segment hits rate cuts, dry powder returning, and why rent growth, not just rates, could drive cap rates lower from here. What You’ll Learn Where supply really landed: Phoenix submarkets (Avondale/Goodyear, West Glendale, South & Central Phoenix, Gilbert, Pinal County) vs. peers like Austin/Dallas/Houston/Nashville. Operator playbook in oversupplied markets: bank-negotiated distress, buying below replacement cost, turning C→B to expand the buyer pool. Flagstaff contrast: moratoria, no new supply, full occupancy—why the strategy flips to renovate & hold. August 2025 Phoenix comps: ~$289k/unit for both 100+ and 10–99 unit buckets (rare parity), with build-to-rent/newer product pulling averages up. Debt & underwriting now: permanent loans over bridge, prove-out rent bumps with current comps, not wishful pro formas. Macro inflection: first 25 bps Fed cut, loan originations and equity fundraising up, institutions favoring multifamily & industrial again. Cap rates & rents: why stabilizing rents (from ~1% toward ~2.25–2.5% next 12–18 months) may be the key driver of cap-rate compression—more than rates alone. ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational discussion only—not tax, legal, or investment advice. Please consult your professional advisors.