Robin Hanson vs. Liron Shapira: Is Near-Term Extinction From AGI Plausible? скачать в хорошем качестве

Robin Hanson vs. Liron Shapira: Is Near-Term Extinction From AGI Plausible?

Robin Hanson is a legend in the rationality community and one of my biggest intellectual influences. In 2008, he famously debated Eliezer Yudkowsky about AI doom via a sequence of dueling blog posts known as the great Hanson-Yudkowsky Foom Debate. This debate picks up where Hanson-Yudkowsky left off, revisiting key arguments in the light of recent AI advances. My position is similar to Eliezer's: P(doom) is on the order of 50% Robin's position is shockingly different: P(doom) is below 1% 00:00 Announcements 03:18 Debate Begins 05:41 Discussing AI Timelines and Predictions 19:54 Economic Growth and AI Impact 31:40 Outside Views vs. Inside Views on AI 46:22 Predicting Future Economic Growth 51:10 Historical Doubling Times and Future Projections 54:11 Human Brain Size and Economic Metrics 57:20 The Next Era of Innovation 01:07:41 AI and Future Predictions 01:14:24 The Vulnerable World Hypothesis 01:16:27 AI Foom 01:28:15 Genetics and Human Brain Evolution 01:29:24 The Role of Culture in Human Intelligence 01:31:36 Brain Size and Intelligence Debate 01:33:44 AI and Goal-Completeness 01:35:10 AI Optimization and Economic Impact 01:41:50 Feasibility of AI Alignment 01:55:21 AI Liability and Regulation 02:05:26 Final Thoughts and Wrap-Up Robin's links: https://x.com/RobinHanson https://hanson.gmu.edu Robin’s top related essays: "What Are Reasonable AI Fears?" https://quillette.com/2023/04/14/what... "AIs Will Be Our Mind Children" https://quillette.com/2023/08/06/ais-... PauseAI links: https://pauseai.info/   / discord   Check out ‪@TheAIRiskNetwork‬, the other podcast raising the alarm about AI extinction! For the full Doom Debates experience: Subscribe to this channel Subscribe to the Substack: https://DoomDebates.com Search "Doom Debates" to subscribe in your podcast player Follow me at https://x.com/liron