Fooled by Randomness [Book Summary] | Key Lessons in Under 10 Minutes скачать в хорошем качестве

Fooled by Randomness [Book Summary] | Key Lessons in Under 10 Minutes

🔔 Subscribe here:    / @mindscience360   A series of wins can create the illusion of reliability in any method, even when most of the success stems from luck. After a few wins, people build stories that treat luck as proof of skill, then increase risk at exactly the wrong time. This video explains how hindsight bias, survivorship bias, and skewed outcomes make averages and success stories unreliable guides. You will learn to evaluate decisions by process and probabilities, use limits and option value for protection, and aim for steady judgment under uncertainty. ⏱️ Timestamps: 00:00:00 Winning streaks can make luck look like a reliable method. 00:01:17 Luck often hides inside skill and creates confident but fragile risk taking. 00:02:30 Hindsight bias rewrites uncertainty and makes outcomes look predictable later. 00:03:41 Real world payoffs are skewed, so rare extremes dominate total results. 00:04:59 Survivorship bias makes winners visible and hides the many similar failures. 00:06:16 Probability thinking and option value help you design choices that avoid ruin. 00:07:33 Personal elegance means performing well in uncertainty without needing certainty. #FooledByRandomness #NassimTaleb #Randomness #LuckVsSkill #RiskManagement #DecisionMaking #BehavioralFinance #InvestingPsychology #HindsightBias #SurvivorshipBias #TailRisk #FatTails #ExpectedValue #ProbabilityThinking #OptionValue #Uncertainty #Volatility #BaseRates #DecisionJournal #CognitiveBias #NarrativeFallacy #ProcessOverOutcome #BlackSwan #PositionSizing #RiskLimits