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Thomas Brooks (International Union for Conservation of Nature) Consideration of a range of indicators, such as the Red List Index, and coverage of Key Biodiversity Areas by Protected Areas, finds negative trends for biodiversity. However, while these indicators are crucially important for guiding policy, they don’t reveal the actual impact of conservation. To assess this, we need to consider not only what is happening as a result of conservation action, but also what we anticipate would have happened in the absence of conservation action. I explore ways to estimate such conservation impacts using various techniques, revealing a more optimistic outlook on nature conservation. About the lecturer Thomas Brooks is IUCN Chief Scientist. His roles include strengthening a) scientific support to assessments based on IUCN standards (e.g. IUCN Red List), b) interactions with peer scientific institutions, c) the Union’s culture of science. His background is in threatened species conservation and tropical forest biodiversity hotspots. He has authored 323 publications.