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Used car prices increased a lot during 2021. A one year old used car is on average 1.3% more expensive than a new car. Nevertheless, a full blown market crash in unlikely. Follow me on Instagram: / fourwheeltrader Contact me at: [email protected] On average, a one year old used car is 1.3% more expensive than a new car; the world is going crazy. Unsurprisingly, an increasing number of reports state that the market will crash. Contrary to this, Cox Automotive published an article in which they state that a market crash is unlikely. They’re expecting a used car price drop of 3% in 2022. Moreover, they directly criticize an article that forecasts a 20 to 30% drop. We will explore both forecasts and then dive into some of the criticisms. The latter relies on two arguments. First, according to Cox automotive, the relationship between used and new car prices is not as extreme as claimed in the article. Second, they highlight that from a historical perspective, a drop of 30% is unprecedented. The first point difficult to evaluate as an outlier but the second point has some merit. All of this highlights that there’s a lot of uncertainty in the market. Therefore, if you’re worried about car values and price decreases, it might be worthwhile to drive around in a car that you can easily afford. To me it seems rather risky to stretch yourself and buy a one year old used car that is more expensive than its ne equivalent. 00:00 Two different views on the market 01:37 2022 Forecasts 04:04 Why prices won’t crash 10:19 Why this matters and conclusion