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In December 2025, Japan quietly made a decision that may end a 30-year economic experiment — and trigger consequences far beyond its borders. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates to 0.75%, the highest level in three decades. That move sounds modest, but for an economy carrying debt equal to 230% of GDP, it fundamentally changes everything. Japan is now being forced to pay real interest on a debt load so large it was only survivable under zero rates. The numbers are already spiraling. Japan’s fiscal 2026 budget shows debt servicing costs exceeding ¥31 trillion for the first time, with ¥13 trillion going to interest alone. And this is before rates reach the Bank of Japan’s own estimated neutral range of 1.0% to 2.5%. Every additional hike compounds the problem, pushing Japan deeper into a policy trap where defending the currency worsens the fiscal crisis — and avoiding the fiscal crisis destroys the currency. Markets see the dilemma clearly. The yen continues to weaken despite rate hikes, capital is fleeing abroad, and inflation remains elevated even as growth slows. Meanwhile, a new government has doubled down on spending, passing the largest budget in Japanese history and openly prioritizing expansion over fiscal discipline. The result is rising bond yields, collapsing confidence, and mounting pressure on the Bank of Japan to choose which pillar of the system breaks first. This crisis won’t stay contained. Japanese institutions are among the largest holders of U.S. Treasuries and global fixed-income assets. Forced selling would push yields higher worldwide, tightening financial conditions everywhere at once. European banks exposed to Japanese bonds face losses, while Japanese corporations with dollar-denominated debt are being crushed by currency weakness. What’s unfolding in Japan is not a local problem — it’s a systemic one. Welcome to @AsianGuyog where sovereign debt traps, monetary regime shifts, and global contagion risks are decoded before the headlines catch up. ⚠️ DISCLAIMER This video is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Macroeconomic analysis involves uncertainty and risk. Always conduct your own research or consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.