CMAF FFT: Forecasting Retail Demand (including earthquakes and pandemics) скачать в хорошем качестве

CMAF FFT: Forecasting Retail Demand (including earthquakes and pandemics)

This is the eleventh webinar in the series of "Friday Forecasting Talks", hosted by Centre for Marketing Analytics and Forecasting of Lancaster University, UK. Follow us on LinkedIn:   / cmaf   on Twitter:   / lancastercmaf​   CMAF webinars: https://cmaf-fft.lp151.com/​ Slides from CMAF FFT webinars: https://github.com/lancastercmaf/FFT - Contents of this video ------------------------- 00:00​ - Introduction 00:22 - Start of the presentation 04:32 - Typical patterns in sales in retail 08:31 - Causal factors in retail 13:50 - Earthquakes! 15:45 - Pandemics! 19:32 - Mass data problem 23:35 - Forecasting methods in retail 30:48 - M5 forecasting Competition 36:50 - Conclusions 39:20 - Q&A session: Cannibalisation in retail 42:00 - Value forecasting accuracy 44:00 - Does weather help in long term? 46:10 - Does impact of causal factors differ geographically? 48:50 - Should different SKUs be treated differently? 52:53 - What models and measures do you prefer for intermittent demand? 57:40 - Why even try forecasting earthquakes? The abstract: One point where we are all confronted with the need for good forecasts is when we go (or nowadays, click) shopping. Retailers need good forecasts to ensure their shelves are well stocked, but not overstocked. (They need forecasts for other uses, as well. More on this in the presentation.) We will go into key challenges in retail demand forecasting, how to address these, what we can learn from the recent M5 competition that used actual retail data, and why UK retailer My Local went out of business. Stephan Kolassa is a Data Science Expert at SAP Switzerland. His responsibilities include the algorithmic, statistical and forecasting aspects of SAP’s retail platform CARAB, from user research across prototyping to training. He also does some academic research on the side, serving as an Honorary Researcher at the Centre for Marketing Analytics and Forecasting at Lancaster University Management School, and as Associate Editor for Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting. Images by https://storyset.com/