Predicting the future: A lecture by Philip Tetlock скачать в хорошем качестве

Predicting the future: A lecture by Philip Tetlock

The University of Pennsylvania’s Philip Tetlock has made the study of prediction his life’s work. For nearly three decades, he has written extensively on the ideas and methods that produce successful forecasts. In their new book, “Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction” (Crown, 2015), he and Dan Gardner look at the rare “superforecaster” and how their approaches can gauge the likelihood of events: When will North Korea next test a nuclear weapon? Will the eurozone collapse within five years? Will Carly Fiorina win New Hampshire? In this season of nonstop political prediction, Dr. Tetlock, a master of applied social science, will visit AEI to discuss his lessons for making predictions — lessons that have radical implications for politics, policy, technology, journalism, and education. Subscribe to AEI's YouTube Channel https://www.youtube.com/user/AEIVideo... Like us on Facebook   / aeionline   Follow us on Twitter   / aei   For more information http://www.aei.org