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Estimate confidence and forecast intervals in Stata

Is 6% GDP growth likely for the United States in 2021? I estimate confidence and forecast intervals in Stata to show that 6% growth or more would be an outlier. I discuss recent growth forecasts, characteristics of the normal distribution, the theory and interpretation of a confidence interval, and finally I estimate confidence and forecast intervals in Stata. Myron Scholes presented online at Illinois State University on Friday, April 16th for the 2021 Actuarial Research Event. I was lucky enough to ask him if we are wrong to expect greater than 6% growth in 2021. I convey some of his thoughts at the end of the video. At 6:29, I mention that the distribution of sample means is normal because the population distribution is normal. However, the shape of the distribution of sample means is also normal because our sample size is greater than 30. The central limit theorem applies here. At 14:19, the 6.18% upper bound forecast is actually for 2020. The upper bound forecast for 2021 is about 7%. Data and program: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1T9bM... Recent growth forecasts: https://www.politifact.com/article/20... https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/12/ec... https://markets.businessinsider.com/n... Data: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/W... Standard errors of the forecast: https://otexts.com/fpp2/prediction-in... My website: https://sites.google.com/view/lenz ---Contents of this video--- 00:00 - Intro 00:47 - Recent growth forecasts 01:56 - Program code and data 02:30 - Previous growth forecasts 04:13 - Skewness in plots 05:10 - Characteristics of normal distributions 06:00 - Population vs. sample 07:32 - Percentages within standard devs 08:36 - Confidence interval by hand 10:01 - Interpretation 10:35 - Confidence interval in Stata 11:11 - Growth after recession 11:57 - Forecast interval and standard errors 12:48 - Forecast interval in Stata 13:54 - Forecast without recession 14:38 - Support for less than 6% 15:49 - More thoughts on greater than 6%