Topic 2: Step by step heuristic for credible inference. скачать в хорошем качестве

Topic 2: Step by step heuristic for credible inference.

We continue our journey to build a principled approach to probabilistic reasoning about the statistical existence, strength, and direction of relationship in the simplest social network, the dyad, here of two locations on Fordham University's Rose Hil campus. We build on the previous video where we designed steps based on an Aristotelian causal analysis. A heuristic was already forming, but stil quite embryonic. Here we refine an emerging set of steps and process leading to a provisional answer to the question whether and how foot traffic at McShane (off Edward's Parade) impacts foot traffic at Dealy. A picture emerges with conditional correlation, signs flip, an if-then statement can be made consistent with the data. The next video refines this approach to the point of detail to make a template for further develop in an application and repeated analyses of multiple dyads and the gain and loss of information among them.