Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? | Philip Tetlock | Talks at Google скачать в хорошем качестве

Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? | Philip Tetlock | Talks at Google

Philip Tetlock is the Mitchell Professor of Leadership at the University of California, Berkeley. His current research areas and interests include the following: Learning from experience: How do experts think about possible pasts (historical counterfactuals) and probable futures (conditional forecasts)? And how do experts respond to confirmation/disconfirmation of expectations? Designing accountability systems: How do people cope with various types of accountability pressures and demands in their social world? When does accountability promote mindless conformity? Defensive bolstering of prior positions? Thoughtful self-critical analysis? ... De-biasing judgment and choice. How can organization structure incentives and accountability procedures be used to check common cognitive biases such as belief perseverance and over-confidence? What adverse side effects can such de-biasing efforts have on quality of decision-making? Professor Tetlock came to Google to talk about his book, "Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?" This event took place on August 24, 2006, as a part of the Authors@Google series.