77: Uncertainty in conservation: the limits of prediction (Conservation Insights 2020) скачать в хорошем качестве

77: Uncertainty in conservation: the limits of prediction (Conservation Insights 2020)

INTACH Conservation Institute Lecture Series 'Conservation Insights 2020’ was delivered on18th December at 1700 IST via Zoom Speaker: Jonathan Ashley-Smith (Consultant and teacher in cultural heritage risk, UK) The title of the talk: Uncertainty in conservation: the limits of prediction The promotion of conservation as a science-based profession can lead to an illusory sense of certainty about the motives, methods and outcomes of conservation actions. Routine activities such as condition assessment and risk assessment rely on the ability to predict future environments and future physical and chemical states of objects. Yet, for the results to be useful they have to be presented as simple positive statements that hide the huge uncertainties. Codes of conservation ethics imply predictions about the future behaviours of people and objects. Despite the inherent uncertainties of such predictions, such codes seem to have become the bedrock of the conservation profession. #ConservationInsights2020 #RiskAssessment #ConservationAnalysis