22 - Expert Intuition When can we Trust It скачать в хорошем качестве

22 - Expert Intuition When can we Trust It

Kahneman describes his "adversarial collaboration" with Gary Klein, leader of the Naturalistic Decision Making (NDM) movement, which studies expert intuition in real-world settings. Their fundamental disagreement centered on when to trust expert intuitions. Klein's research with fireground commanders revealed that experts often generate only a single option through pattern recognition rather than comparing alternatives—his Recognition-Primed Decision (RPD) model. Herbert Simon's definition frames intuition as recognition: "The situation has provided a cue; this cue has given the expert access to information stored in memory." Intuition is memory, not magic. The chapter establishes that true expertise requires two conditions: (1) an environment sufficiently regular to be predictable, and (2) opportunity to learn regularities through prolonged practice. Chess masters require at least 10,000 hours of practice to develop their pattern recognition abilities, building a repertoire of thousands of configurations. Skills like reading and chess expertise involve recognizing increasingly complex patterns—letters become words, piece configurations become strategic positions. Valid intuitions emerge in domains with environmental regularities and rapid, clear feedback. Firefighters, nurses, anesthesiologists, and chess players operate in fundamentally orderly situations where System 1 learns valid cues. Anesthesiologists benefit from immediate feedback and can develop reliable intuitions, while radiologists receive sparse, delayed feedback about diagnostic accuracy. In contrast, stock pickers, long-term political forecasters, and clinical psychologists making long-term predictions operate in "zero-validity" or "low-validity" environments where the unpredictability of events makes accurate intuitions impossible. Robin Hogarth identified "wicked environments" where professionals learn wrong lessons—like the physician who spread typhoid while confirming his "intuitions" about patient illness. Expertise is domain-specific and task-specific; psychotherapists develop genuine skill reading immediate patient reactions but lack valid intuitions about long-term treatment outcomes due to absent feedback. Professionals often fail to recognize the boundaries of their expertise, leading to overconfidence. Kahneman and Klein's key agreement: subjective confidence is not a reliable guide to validity. To evaluate intuitive judgments, examine their provenance—the regularity of the environment and the expert's learning history—rather than the expert's confidence level. System 1 can generate compelling but false intuitions through substitution and coherence-seeking. The chapter concludes that while they reached intellectual agreement on principles, their emotional attitudes toward expertise remained different—Klein trusting, Kahneman skeptical—reflecting their different professional experiences.