CMAF FFT: Accuracy, Explainability and Trust: the trinity of business forecasting? скачать в хорошем качестве

CMAF FFT: Accuracy, Explainability and Trust: the trinity of business forecasting?

This is the tenth webinar in the series of "Friday Forecasting Talks", hosted by Centre for Marketing Analytics and Forecasting of Lancaster University, UK. Follow us on LinkedIn:   / lancastercmaf   CMAF on Twitter:   / lancastercmaf​   CMAF webinars: https://cmaf-fft.lp151.com/​ - Contents of this video ------------------------- 00:00​ - Introduction 00:22 - Start of the presentation 02:28 - What this talk is about 03:58 - Business context, where forecasting comes in 09:33 - How businesses use forecasts 13:41 - The importance of accuracy 15:00 - The importance of trust in forecasting 21:53 - The importance of explainability 24:52 - Explainability / accuracy / trust cycle 27:07 - Concluding remarks 28:55 - Q&A session The abstract: Many businesses rely extensively on their forecasting systems in order to make decisions which concern the future. Given the importance of correct decisions to businesses, a great deal of emphasis is placed on the statistical accuracy of these systems, with little thought in the wider implementation challenges and overall utility within business processes. These issues can create larger barriers to implementation success and crucially user acceptance. With the advent of Machine Learning based forecasting approaches, and business decisions being made off the back of them, trust and the use of these systems by individuals and teams will become ever more important. This talk will discuss these issues, the wider issues of implementation and suggest some solutions to the problems. Simon is Data Science Team Lead in Peak (https://www.peak.ai). He has PhD in Economics from Lancaster University and is an expert in forecasting in supply chain. Images by https://storyset.com/